800 prices continue to tumble...

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V-man

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2019-2021 threw crystal ball predictions out the window and made “artificial upon artificial” conditions that obscure predictability, but there are things to glean that suggest this too is a finite window.

The glut of my shit acquired post-HS was 2009-11. This was the wake of the 2008 crisis and the music bubble bursting. Deals were to be had as demand for all shit plummeted. It’s no secret we are circling the toilet bowl economically and a repeat performance of 2008 (if not far worse) would hardly be surprising.

We KNOW 2020 was a bubble. Isolation (and stimulus) created sharper demand for hobby shit and supply chain issues killed supply. However, something parallels that bubble: the gross incompetence and/or deliberate scheme to crash the western economy.

Used Marshalls and Gibsons did not go up alone. Gas has doubled costing transport of everything, causing higher prices. Eggs doubled. Beef went up $1-2 per pound. New Epis regularly break $1,000 and Gibson USAs break $2,000. On one hand, you can’t put the ‘82 2204 between two pieces of bread and as such, shit like this is the first to be liquidated… On the other hand, if Gibson USA is not going back to $1K USAs and $1,500 Epis are becoming the new normal, how much sense long-term is an $850 JCM 800 going to make when the new CONTINUES to list well over $3K and the Studio version lists double that?

In short, the most desperate and overstocked will cause the dip in the short term, but that will eventually stabilize and stay high when the world has begrudgingly accepted $12-$15 drive thru meals as the new standard among everything else. You can’t continue to shit on how high the hobby numbers are in perpetuity while simultaneously embracing what the supermarket and drive thru dictates.
 

Deftone

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FWIW Reverb isn't the best place to monitor prices, IMHO. They lie about sold prices and most of the asking prices are extremely over inflated. I'd watch CL and FB Marketplace in various markets as well.

Not disagreeing with the OP though. I check all the time as well and stuff that isn't price really low isn't moving. There's deals if you are looking.
 

Resident 217

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Simple there's just too much stuff.
A search of Canada on one of the lesser buy/sell sites "Kijiji" of "Marshall" in musical instruments reveals nearly 900 listings.
That is a lot! Marshall can only compete by having high prices for new ones. Its like an ascending spiral.

 

NumbSkull

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It is very odd.
The prices things are selling for just dont make sense, not just guitars but torches, tools, and many other things.
One theory I have is its a deliberate Chinese plot to destroy western manufacturing capability,
They saw it worked with steel and now they are extending it to electronic goods,
They subsidise the loans for building new factories to create jobs, this helps to depress the currency so exports stay cheap.
They know they are dumping stuff at less than cost but it keeps their population busy and when it comes to building a massive drone army they will be miles ahead.
Maybe I am a bit paranoid after watching too much Canadian Prepper but normal does not compute.
 

scozz

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Sweetwater, MF, Zounds, etc., have recently lowered the prices of some new Dsl’s by $100.

New DSL’s, sooo,…
 

Plexitim

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One principle I have seen proven true again and again: collectible and discretionary spending like guitars and amps always follows housing by 6-9 months. So when you see a slowdown in home sales, guitar and amp prices will follow.

Buy it because you love it. Then it does not matter what the market does or where the value goes. Just my .02
 

NumbSkull

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There seem to be massive risks in Geopolitics atm that will affect gear prices.
Will someone bomb Iran or Saudi putting oil prices to $300 and adding huge costs to shipping ?
Will USA sanction China ending the flow of cheap guitars ?
Will the global recession mean that no one has time or money for expensive guitars leading to massive drop in demand ?
Will China's desperate attempts to avoid recession lead to massive subsidised overproduction of guitars ?
Is AI music the next big thing ?

It seems to me it could go either way , the swings could be huge and its impossible to predict.
 
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